Trade war not driven by ideology, says director at Tsinghua University

Editor’s note: Amid the deepening China-US trade war, Professor Yan Xuetong, director of the Institute of International Relations at Tsinghua University, shared his views with chinadaily.com.cn on the nature of the trade war, how other countries should react to the situation, and his interpretation of Trump’s leadership style. At the end of the interview, Professor Yan talked about his understanding of the theme of this year’s World Peace Forum.

CD: Last Friday, the US imposed tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese products and China has responded with a 25 percent tariff on $50 billion worth of US goods. So there have been worries and concerns the consequences the trade conflicts between US and China could bring about. How do you interpret this situation? What could be the consequences of the trade war?

Yan: The exact consequences are hard to predict. But the worry is that the trade conflicts will spill over into the financial sector and ultimately set off a global financial crisis.

CD: If we take a step back and look around, we will see it’s not just China that has been involved in the US trade wars. The US is waging trade wars on multiple fronts, targeting allies and rivals. What is the nature of the trade wars? 

Yan: The nature of the trade war is the changes in today’s interest structure, rather than an ideology competition. That is to say, we shouldn’t analyze the situation using Cold War mentality and analyze international affairs in an Eastern-block versus-Western-block way. Today’s situation is mainly motivated by the countries’ pursuit of secular interest. In a few years, people will coin and adopt new concepts to replace the Cold War mentality and concepts.

CD: How should countries respond to the current trade wars in order to protect their interests and prevent disruptions to the global economic order and financial market?

Yan: Ideally, the countries should work together to maintain the current world order. But in reality, all the major powers have their own interests to protect and pursue. So the most realistic approach would be for each country to act in its best interest. Under the current circumstance, a multilateral organization won’t work for the lack of an adequate leadership. 

This situation reminds me of of Chinese Warring Times when the then-leading state Qin was in dominance, the other six states did not always fight as an united front, but fought on their own and for themselves. 

Today, we should understand why those states did not form a united front, and it is because that they had their own interest to pursue. Just as today, in the face of trade war, the major powers should act in their country’s best interest. 
And from China’s perspective, it is vital to try to contain it within the trade field and don’t let it escalate into a model conflicts or an ideology competition. 
The Chinese government needs to publicly and repeatedly stress the point that China does not export ideology.

CD: You have mentioned that we should prevent the war from escalating into an ideology competition. Is this a motivation behind the Trump administration’s trade policies? If not, what do you think is the motivation behind such actions?

Yan: On the surface, Trump administration claims that they want to balance trade deficit, but my understanding is that their actual purpose is to regain dominant influence, and they now want to abandon the trade order based on the WTO, which was actually established by the US. But, to use their words, the WTO is “dominated by China, rather than the US.” So they want to quit the WTO and re-establish an order favorable to the US.

The US has also quit several UN organizations including the human rights council. These institutions were actually initiated by the US but now Trump said that “hey, these institutions are no longer instruments to the US, but are used against the US.” 

And the reason behind such changes may have something to do with Trump’s understanding of leadership, which is different from that of the liberals.

Liberalism believes that they should get other countries to follow America’s leadership, but for Trump, leadership means to force other countries to follow the leadership if it is favorable to the interest of the United States. Trump thinks that leadership is not worth maintaining if the cost of maintaining the leadership exceeds the benefits gained from it. Trump is more concerned with dominance. Dominance is different from leadership in that instead of getting others support by earning their confidence, dominance imposing the will of the leading country by means of force or power. 

There are two basic sources of leadership, one is power, the other is authority. You can use power to coerce others into acting under your will; or you have enough authority that others are confident in you and will willingly follow your lead. 

Trump’s approach leans toward the first one. The Trump administration is trying to get other countries to follow America’s will by force.

CD: If so, what are the chances that Trump administration will re-establish an “America-friendly” world order? 

Yan: Not likely. The America’s power is on the decline while the Trump administration is not providing enough authority to gain others’ confidence in the US and supplement its decreasing power. Thus, it is very hard for them to lead effectively or to rebuild a new world order, which requires more power than to disrupt the current one.

CD: The World Peace Forum is to be held in Tsinghua University this weekend, from July 14 to 15. This year’s forum is themed “Constructing a Security Community: Equality, Equity and Justice”. How should we understand the word “security” in today’s international situation? 

Yan: The state of “security” is defined as no threat no fear and no uncertainty. But in reality, there’s no absolute security. What we strive to achieve is the state of being relatively secure.

This year, amid the tit-for-tat tariff exchanges, trade order will be a buzzword at the forum.

About the World Peace Forum:

The World Peace Forum is a high-level non-governmental global forum on international security held under the approval of the State Council. This year, Yang Jiechi, member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, will attend and address at the opening ceremony, while former Afghanistan president Hamid Karzai, former European Council President and former European Commission president are also invited to attend the forum. Diplomatic envoys of more than 40 countries and 70 think tank scholars from 23 countries will be present at the event.

Source: China Daily