Japanese Scholar: US-China Balance will Shift Subtly After COVID-19

Affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, economic globalization has been put into reverse. The media of various countries have been holding a spate of discussions on the future trend of the world economy. Recently, Japanese weekly magazine Friday (April 17, 2020 issue) published a review article U.S. Failed to Contain China and was Left Open to its Counterattack, written by Yabuki Susumu, professor emeritus of Yokohama City University. The article pointed out that until recently, “the economic balance between the United States and China is an important factor in stimulating the world economy, but this balance is now shifting subtly. In the world after the COVID-19 pandemic, economic advantage may turn to China.”

Concerning the world economy after the outbreak, “although the U.S.-China bipolar international system remains the same, its connotation will change dramatically.” The Trump administration’s policy of containing China will end in failure, and China’s economy will go global with its upgraded institution and strength,” commented the article.

By citing China’s achievements in mobile payment, electric vehicles, 5G infrastructure and communication technology represented by Huawei, the article argued that China is trying to catch up with the United States in the field of science and technology.

In particular, “another focus that had sparked friction is the intense US-China competition in quantum technologies.” In 2016, China launched the world’s first quantum-enabled satellite “Mozi,” while the United States has yet to successfully launch a quantum satellite. “In other words, China is one step ahead in the field of quantum communication. Although the United States still takes the lead in quantum computing, China is only one step away,” the article indicated. It also mentioned that once China “successfully apply quantum communication technology into practical use, the United States will lose its leading military capabilities.” 

In the early stage of the battle against the new coronavirus, China has taken decisive measures to lock down Wuhan. “The ability to build two provisional hospitals (Huoshenshan and Leishenshan hospitals) in 10 days is largely due to its system that gathers the strength of the whole country. As China has repeatedly stressed, this model is ‘impossible for other countries to replicate.’ The world has to admit that China has succeeded in the practice.”

The article points out that the United States is facing a situation in which four of the 11 aircraft carriers have lost combat abilities due to the COVID-19. In addition, against the backdrop of lowered defense budget, it is expected to be very difficult for U.S. aircraft carriers to return service. The article predicts that by summing up the experience and lessons of the fight against the novel coronavirus, China will further rejuvenate, while the United States will slide into recession, and the world may move towards multi-polarity.

Discussions and debates have been raging on for a long period of time about the challenges faced by the global governance system. The COVID-19 pandemic once again exposed the serious defects of the current global governance system. What we see is that history did not end after the Cold War, and will not come to a stop after the COVID-19 outbreak. After the pandemic, if human beings only develop relevant vaccines and therapeutic drugs, and neglect the importance of building an effective human cooperation mechanism in the new era, the threat to human survival will come back to haunt us at any time.